News & Insights
SEPTEMBER 22 – 23. 2020
SMARTER Risk Management is delighted to announce its participation in the sponsoring of the ABRIGO “THINK BIG. MANAGE RISK. DRIVE GROWTH. “ 2020 Virtual Conference.
Visit www.abrigo.com/thinkbig-manage-risk-drive-growth-virtual-event for all the details.
Model Validation Changes Under CECL - Moving from Incurred Loss to Expected Loss
ALLL/CECL & COVID-19 - Reserving for Loan Losses During a Pandemic
Until recently determining the reserve has been a fairly straightforward and predictable event. Now as the financial industry enters into a “virus driven” recession. The time has come for Bankers to ask themselves two critical questions. “How do I reserve for this, given all the uncertainty that exists, and the (as of right now) lack of actual losses? And how do I support the reserve decisions I make?”
This article discusses ways to address the reserve over the next few quarters. By reviewing the current situation, what is unpredictable and predictable about it.
Latest From The Get SMARTER Blog
A few years ago, as conversations about using artificial intelligence (AI) in other financial fields took form, risk professionals hoped the new technology would provide an avenue to automate some of the layers of risk modeling, improving the results while reducing the hours required to perform this task. From then to now, however, that aspect of modern technology hasn’t fully matured in financial and risk models. That’s not to say there haven’t been some developments in risk management AI and machine-learning (ML) over the last few years, though.
It’s worth separating out the two ideas: risk “weather,” or what to do to handle weather events in the short-term, and risk “climate,” what to do to handle weather events in the long-term. Note that for the purposes of this article, I’m focused more on the space of community financial institutions, and also that “climate risk” is separate from “risk climate” (more on that in a second).
In order to address risk proactively, you have to see through the noise of all of the information you are being presented with. The goal is to find the right stuff to pay attention to and not be distracted by the rest. It is a challenging task, indeed.
As February 2021 gets off to a start and the continued effects of the pandemic on the economy continue to force us all to ask questions like “what unexpected scenario is going to bring us a new source of risk this month,” it’s worth taking a step back and performing a status check on some of the larger accounting changes from last decade and where they stand now.
As we enter 2021 we have hope for a better year. There is a perceptible and not just figurative, “light at the end of the tunnel”, with the attention focused on the newly developed vaccines providing the opportunity to vaccinate the vast majority of the world within a very short timeframe. A truly monumental undertaking with a hopeful but unknown outcome. In addition, we have the important concept of reversion to the mean.
A few weeks ago, I was listening to a Webcast by Jos Gheerardyn, the CEO of Yields.io entitled Model Risk Management during Periods of Stress. Jos has created a company that provides firms with the ability to perform model validation using an A.I. based platform, a very unique and innovative approach. Jos and I are focused on model risk management but from different, yet complementary, vantages. As such, I am always interested to what Yields.io is doing because what they are doing is where the rest of us will be heading.
“I am quite positive that, in reality, everything is going downhill fast” This sentence popped into my head the other day and it got me thinking. We are pulled in many different directions; sometimes positive, sometimes negative and sometimes it just is what it is....
Q3 2020 is ending this week. Everyone will be busy closing out the books on the quarter and, in particular, determining the credit loss exposure of the Bank. And with no further relief passed by Congress, the rest of the year will continue to be an uncertain challenge.
We are bombarded with statistics every day. If you turn on the news (not always recommended) you will hear about the unemployment rate, the stock market, COVID-19, the election, etc… And at work, we have statistics coming at us from all sides.